2027 Mock Draft 1.0
It's never too early for the first mock draft of the 2027 NFL Draft cycle!
Welcome to my first 2027 mock draft! In the nine-plus months ahead of a potentially-historic 2027 NFL Draft, we will have plenty more coming. But you have to start somewhere, and below is my best attempt to simulate the draft if it were held tomorrow.
Note: Order was determined by inverting the Super Bowl odds at a popular sportsbook last week.
1. Arizona Cardinals: QB Arch Manning | Texas | 6036/228
Manning still has work to do. He’s not as accurate as QBs Dante Moore or Drew Mestemaker, and he puts the ball at risk more often than they do. But no quarterback in the 2027 class can match Manning’s combination of size, athleticism, and pocket presence… and that’s before we get to his lineage. If Manning tests at the 2027 NFL Combine, he’s going to shock people. He boasts 90th-percentile max speed and max acceleration, according to on-field tracking data, and runs an estimated low-4.5s forty. I have Manning comped to Trevor Lawrence.
2. Cleveland Browns: QB Dante Moore | Oregon | 6024/212
If I was going to select a quarterback to win me a college football game tomorrow, Moore would be the pick. Right this moment, he is a better quarterback than Arch Manning. But Manning has the tools to continue ascending, whereas Moore’s average-ish arm strength and athleticism will always render him a pocket-confined signal-caller with minor spacing limitations. But boy do I love Moore’s elite accuracy, pocket poise, ability to execute concepts on time, and layering ability. My comp is CJ Stroud. Stroud hit the ground running as a rookie, and Moore’s skillset should translate just as quickly.
3. New York Jets: QB Drew Mestemaker | Oklahoma State | 6035/211
Mestemaker is my pick to scream up draft boards this fall. Mestemaker is even more confined to the pocket than Moore is – Mestemaker is a middling athlete – but boy does he have gumption and natural feel for an inexperienced pocket-passer. Mestemaker already has an impressive reel of trick-shot anticipatory throws on tape, despite only having started one season. Incredibly, Mestemaker – who led the FBS in pass yards last year – did not start a single game at quarterback in high school. Moving up from North Texas to Oklahoma State along with most of the coaching staff and key players, Mestemaker is going to put up video game numbers in the Big 12. Mestemaker is my longshot darkhorse for the Heisman (was 100-to-1 earlier in the offseason; now 80-to-1).
4. Miami Dolphins: WR Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | 6031/225
Smith shoved aside future first-round picks Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate to take over as Ohio State’s WR1 the day he stepped foot on campus in 2023. Tall, muscular, and long-levered, Smith is a menacing physical presence blessed with elite north/south athleticism. Smith is a gravitational-force — the defense needs to play a deep safety over him at all times, giving the rest of the offense more room to work. He’s a bullet train off the snap, he gets downtown in a hurry, and he’s a natural in jump-ball situations. The Julio Jones comps fit. It’s hard to find weaknesses in Smith’s game – Smith has incredible hands (2.2% drop rate last season) and is one of the best run-blocking receivers in this class. I spoke with a source who said he’s never seen the NFL grade a prospect higher than they graded Smith this summer.
5. Tennessee Titans: ED Colin Simmons | Texas | 6026/255
This fall, we’re going to get weekly updates on the Great Quarterback Race of 2027. But on the other side of the ball, Colin Simmons and Dylan Stewart’s battle for EDGE1 will be equally compelling. Simmons is the more well-rounded player today, and he doesn’t get the credit he deserves for being a freak athlete himself (on-field tracking data says Simmons was more athletic on the field than Stewart last year, if you can believe it). Simmons isn’t blessed with Stewart’s stretched-out frame or length, but he is far more stout, and has been more productive to this point in college.
